April 16,
2002
Storm Chase
Southwest Oklahoma
Editor: Putnam
Reiter
Forecast/Setup -
Risk Area: Slight
Initial Target Area: Southwest Oklahoma
Shortwave trofs moved over the
area around noon. This put much of Oklahoma and Texas in NVA this
afternoon. However, around 14:00 a small cumulus field popped up on
satellite. SPC picked up on this immediately. Looking at the Eta there was
a small 10 unit vortmax cruising into Texas at this time. This feature
combined with a rather big dryline bulge and decent instability helped
develop storms across the region. Throw in a warm front for good measure
and you've got problems. Hence, several tornadoes occurred today.
The Chase -
Team 1 - Rob Ferguson and
Putnam Reiter
Miles Driven - @200
Departure Time - 16:00 CDT
Return Time - 22:30 CDT
Early morning convection in
Texas and parts of Oklahoma made this an iffy day. Early this afternoon
signs began to emerge that something was up, literally. Cumulus clouds
developed near the dryline across western OK and northwest TX. We thought
the area was not that favorable, so scrambled upon seeing the cumulus.
We drove to Lawton and then to
Synder. We sat there for a while and watched some impressive storms across
the Red River. We didn't think the tornado potential was good enough to
head into Texas. Sure enough none of the storms in this area produced much
more than hail. Storms did do a lot more when that got into southeast
Oklahoma and especially northeast Texas (DFW Metro included).
We headed back to Lawton,
dropped by KSWO-TV and then came home. We might not have seen a tornado,
but at least storms developed this time!
Lessons Learned -
This was another
forecasting error on our part and we should have committed to Texas.
This is the hazard of not following your 'gut' or being willing to go
for a specific region. Forecasting is tough and below is an example.
This discussion was issued shortly before a tornado hit the DFW Metro.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2002
MODELS SHOW STRONG
SUBSISTENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT PASSED OVER NORTH
TEXAS TODAY. COMBINED WITH STRONG CAP AND DELAY IN HEATING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS HAVE REMOVED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING.
Encounters -
Engaged Storm: No
Tornado: No
Funnel: No
Hail (larger than 0.75 inches): No
Wall Cloud: No
Wind (above 57.4 mph): No
