SPC AC 271626
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
   
   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE
   AMA LBL GCK HLC OLU DSM COU FYV MLC SPS CDS 50 NE AMA.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
   MHE 9V9 50 ENE MBG 40 NNW JMS GFK FAR BKX 35 S MHE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 35 ESE RHI
   35 NE MTW 10 ENE MIE 15 NNE CGI 30 NW ELD 35 N GGG 10 ENE ACT 50 ENE
   JCT 45 SSW SJT 25 SE MAF 20 ESE PVW 35 ENE AMA 60 SSW LBL 40 S EHA
   15 NW SAF 20 E FMN 10 NW MTJ 20 W EGE 10 SE AKO 25 ESE PHP 65 NE
   MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 35 NNE FLO
   35 WNW GSO 30 NW DAN 35 SW WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
   EASTERN SD AND EASTERN ND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...KS/OK THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS. THIS FEATURE IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
   OF OK/KS.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE
   DAY...AFFECTING MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL OK. 
   RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
    SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WEST EDGE OF PRECIP BAND
   MAY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH KS/OK.
   
   ...SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY ALONG AND
   WEST OF SURFACE DRYLINE IN WESTERN OK. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
   SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHWEST OK BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   REINFORCE CAPPING INVERSION AND LIMIT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
   THROUGH 18-21Z.  HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING AND MID LEVEL COOLING
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH MAY AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHWEST OK
   BY 21-00Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION APPEAR QUITE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO
   A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AFTER DARK...MOVING ACROSS
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN
   MO.
   
   ...DAKOTAS TODAY...
   STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ND/SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MORNING
   OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION
   MAY LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION AND EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..HART/CROSBIE.. 03/27/2004