HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301200- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A MODERATE RISK EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LOCATION... THE HIGH RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO WEATHERFORD...GUTHRIE...AND STILLWATER. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD...TO FREDERICK...TO WICHITA FALLS...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TIMING... THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 2 TO 11 PM. IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFS...AND VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL. VIOLENT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 80 MPH...AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS... STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER. EVERYONE IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN ALERT DURING THEIR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES AND TRAVEL. KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST...AND PLAN AHEAD ON WHAT YOU WILL DO IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO APPROACHES YOUR AREA. DISCUSSION... A DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. FIRST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHERE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE GREATEST. ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH...AND SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WILL ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP...WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA...WHERE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE STRONGEST...AND LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE HIGHEST. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO A STRONGER CAP. BUT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO QUICKLY DEVELOP...WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE...MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE...AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RISK OF TORNADOES. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 30. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM SUNDAY. $$