DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT ACROSS WRN OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND SW KS....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX NWD TO SE NEB
   THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO SW AR THIS
   AFTERNOON....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   TIDEWATER AREA....
   
   ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD NWD ACROSS OK/KS/NW TX...IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
   ERN CO/WRN KS IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
   EWD/ENEWD OVER WRN NM/CO THIS MORNING. S OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
   LOW...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND 00-12Z CHANGES
   IN OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
   MINIMIZED E OF THE DRYLINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
   70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THAT STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY BY ABOUT 22Z
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE EWD/NEWD
   INTO SW KS AND WRN OK DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS KS INTO NRN
   OK.
   
   SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TODAY BENEATH 8 C/KM MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON E OF THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE AND S OF THE WARM
   FRONT...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG APPEAR LIKELY.  THOUGH
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 21-03Z WILL RESULT IN
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO W/NW OK THIS
   EVENING.  THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
   DURING THE EVENING AS CONVECTION MERGES AND GROWS UPSCALE INTO MORE
   OF A LINE/MCS ACROSS OK/KS BY EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   ...SE VA AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
   60S...WHILE STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
   WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE SOUNDING PROFILES
   WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000
   J/KG.  ADDITIONALLY...40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 04/01/2006