DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
   
   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
   KS AND WESTERN OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
   EASTERN AND CENTRAL KS...ACROSS CENTRAL OK...THE EASTERN TX
   PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN NORTH TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   A COMPLICATED...YET SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS TO BE
   DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. 
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO 
   THE TX PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   OVERSPREADING MUCH OF NORTH TX/OK/KS.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LARGE
   AREA OF CONCERN FOR SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GREATEST
   CONCENTRATION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/ COLD FRONT
   FROM CENTRAL KS...ACROSS WESTERN OK...INTO WESTERN NORTH TX. 
   HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL BE PRESENT OVER A
   MUCH LARGER AREA.
   
   ...KS/NEB/IA...
   MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
   ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KS/SOUTHEAST NEB/MUCH OF IA IN REGION OF
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT.  AIRMASS IS RECOVERING
   QUICKLY IN THIS REGION...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A RISK OF
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODES OF STRONG CONVECTION IN
   THIS AREA TODAY.
   
   ...SOUTH CENTRAL KS/WESTERN OK/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...
   A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000+ J/KG AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S.  MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
   RATHER WEAK CAPPING INVERSION OVER THIS AREA...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL
   OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX
   PANHANDLE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM APPROACHES.  GIVEN THE WEAK
   CAP...IT APPEARS THAT BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
   HELP TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS AND REDUCE VERTICAL MIXING OF LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
    KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL ALSO BE VERY FAVORABLE WITH LARGE...CURVED
   HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OVER 500 M2/S2.  MODEL
   GUIDANCE IS VERY INCONSISTENT IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A POTENT
   ENVIRONMENT...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AMPLE MOISTURE IN
   PLACE...AND MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MEASURES INDICATING A
   WIDESPREAD RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...FEEL THERE IS SUFFICIENT
   CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO
   WESTERN OK.
   
   ...WEST TX...
   STRONG HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WESTERN NORTH TX INTO
   SOUTHWEST TX.  SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THIS AXIS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/26/2009