Convective Outlooks, Fire Weather, and Weather Watches -
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Fri, 03 Sep 2010 17:43:09 +0000 SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 3 17:44:07 UTC 2010 No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 3 17:44:07 UTC 2010.

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 17:43:10 +0000 SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Sep 3 17:44:07 UTC 2010 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 3 17:44:07 UTC 2010.

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 16:35:58 +0000 SPC Sep 3, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO NRN FL/SRN GA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE S OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. TO THE W...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM UT INTO ERN MT WILL FLATTEN AS A TROUGH SINKS SWD OUT OF WRN CANADA. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL AND WRN MT. ...MT... SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN MT ALONG A COLD FRONT. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. GIVEN 40-60 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND INVERTED-V PROFILES...SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEFORE CIN INCREASES AFTER SUNSET. ..JEWELL.. 09/03/2010 Read more

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 16:16:51 +0000 SPC Sep 3, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SWD TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE EARL WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NNEWD AND THE WRN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING STORM CORE WILL SKIRT THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE TX NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED RATHER POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE NARROW MOIST WARM SECTOR...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER OH AND TN VALLEYS...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE ACROSS TX IN THE PLUME OF 2.25-2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND RATHER MODEST LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MAINTAINING EVEN 5% WIND PROBABILITIES. FARTHER N...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MAINE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH RATHER WARM PROFILES ALOFT AND RESULTANT MODEST INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SUGGEST THAT ANY PARTICULAR TYPE OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS S FL...AND POTENTIALLY ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME INTO SE AZ/SW NM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR ORE NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITHIN A WEAK MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND IN ADVANCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WA. ..THOMPSON/PETERS.. 09/03/2010 Read more

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 16:52:27 +0000 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...N-CNTRL/NERN ORE...SERN WA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO CNTRL VA... MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS GPS TPW GUIDANCE CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR W-SW OF TC EARL SUPPORTIVE OF LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AOB 25 PERCENT/ ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS D1 FORECAST...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WLY SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 MPH DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...MITIGATING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...NRN FL AND THE PANHANDLE... AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 90 F DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO NEAR 60 F...MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOB 5 MPH...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN AZ... MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS MODIFIED 12Z TUS RAOB INDICATE DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS OVER CNTRL AND SRN AZ THAT CAN APPROACH 100 F DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF INCREASING PWAT VALUES /RANGING FROM 0.60 INCHES OVER CNTRL AZ TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER SRN AZ/ AND SLOW FORECAST STORM MOTIONS MAY MITIGATE THAT THREAT SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY STORMS. ..GARNER.. 09/03/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0322 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY EARLY SAT. ...N-CNTRL/NERN ORE...SERN WA... WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH THE NAM AND ITS COMPANION HI-RES WRF-NMM MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING/MOISTENING...OVERALL TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LOW /AROUND 10 PERCENT/. HOWEVER...SHOULD ANY TSTMS DEVELOP THEY OUGHT TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND FAST STORM MOTIONS. NEVERTHELESS...FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS IN THE MOIST CATEGORY /PER LATEST NWCC OUTLOOK/ WITH RECENT ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT. ...PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO S-CNTRL VA... A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY LOWER PW VALUES WAS SAMPLED IN 06Z PIT/RNK/FFC RAOBS...BETWEEN AREAS OF RICHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TC EARL AND A WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS DRY AIR CORRIDOR WILL SHIFT EWD AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S SHOULD LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES /FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT/. HOWEVER...WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE /AROUND 8 TO 15 MPH/ AND LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

Warnings and Advisories for Oklahoma -
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